How immigration and crime are (not) connected
Immigration, both authorized and not, grew tremendously over the past four years. Crime went down.
I am the granddaughter of immigrants. Just like nearly every other citizen of the United States, my ancestors were not born in this country.
My people fled difficult times in Eastern Europe, hoping to find better opportunities in America. And they did.
My dad’s father became a business-owner in his adopted city of Cleveland, Ohio. My mom’s parents didn’t have much money but she managed to go to college and began a professional career in healthcare before starting a family. When her husband died and she became a single mom of three kids, she still didn’t sink to the level of poverty her mother experienced. Mom remarried – another son of immigrants – and they sent five kids to college.
I share my immigrant family story only because it is so very common. Most of my ancestors came to this country through Ellis Island, under the protection of Lady Liberty. They were part of the largest wave of newcomers to this country – at least until recently.
New government data shows that since 2021 the United States has experienced its largest immigration increase in history. Net migration over the past four years is expected to exceed 8 million people, including both legal immigration and an influx of undocumented people.
According to the Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. has never previously added 2 million more people a year (total immigration minus the people leaving) over a four-year period. Not even during the late 1800s and early 1900s, when my people and millions more came to this country.
A political message that saturated conservative political campaigns this past election, that immigration grew during the Biden administration, was true.
But the section part of the Republican message on immigration is demonstrably false: Immigration and crime are not connected. In simplest terms: while immigration has risen since the pandemic, crime has gone down, measurably. So even if you could prove a connection between crime and immigration, it would offer a different story than what is being told on TV talk shows and conservative podcasts.
And I doubt, but I can’t prove beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the increase in immigration did not cause the decrease in crime in this country. But more on that later, since that is one way to interpret the data.
More on crime
The most recent FBI crime statistics show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 3% from 2022 to 2023, including a 11.6% drop in murder and non-negligent manslaughter, an estimated 9.4% decrease in rape, and decreases in aggravated assault and even robbery. And 2023 was not a blip in FBI statistics. Violent crime also decreased in 2022, including a 6.1% drop in murder and non-negligent manslaughter.
If you want to dig further into the data, including exploring state crime statistics, the FBI can help you with that. The rabbit hole of the FBI crime statistics site also allows you to look at the data for cities and counties.
So if crime is down, according to the FBI, why do people believe America, especially its cities, have gotten more dangerous? One partial explanation is how long it takes data to reach us. Another part of the equation: data is in the eye of the beholder. For example, crime went up during the pandemic, so when you talk about crime data, what years you are using for your frame of reference matter.
According to a report from the Brennan Center for Justice, researchers are still trying to figure out why, for example, the murder rate rose 30% in 2020. The Brennan Center connects this data point to another statistic: an increase in the use of guns to kill people during the pandemic. They quote a Centers for Disease Control report that found firearm homicides increased 35% in 2020.
Is there decisive research on immigrants and crime?
The National Institute of Justice, which is the research, evaluation, and technology agency of the U.S. Department of Justice, has studied the issue of immigrant and refugee crime extensively.
According to the results of a NIJ study published in 2024, undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half the rate of natural-born U.S. citizens for violent and drug crimes, and a quarter of the rate for property crimes. This statistic seems logical to me. For one thing, undocumented immigrants do not want to get caught in the criminal justice system. That is the fastest route to deportation. The rest of us pay a fine or serve a sentence in jail for breaking the law; undocumented immigrants serve time and get sent back to the place they left.
A study by Northwestern University researchers came to the same conclusion. That research concluded decisively that “over a 150-year period, immigrants have never been incarcerated at a greater rate than those born in the United States.” If you are a data nerd, please check out this study. The way they were able to track crime and immigration over time is fascinating.
So why do some conservatives continue to push this issue forward when the data disagrees with their conclusions. The answer lies mostly in the disconnect between data and personal experience.
While crime is down significantly across the nation, individuals and some neighborhoods have had a different experience. And we tend to believe our own experiences or the experiences of our friends and family over national data and surveys. An NPR story on crime in one neighborhood of New York City is a good example of the way personal stories trump social science research in the minds of individuals.
And once again, what you believe and how you vote is in your hands. But you should build those beliefs on research and knowledge, not on the promises of politicians who are making their best effort to get you to vote their way. Immigration is a huge subject to explore. This post barely breaks the surface. Read on for more.
Go deeper: More to read
Brennan Center for Justice on the myth of the “Migrant Crime Wave: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/09/27/key-findings-about-us-immigrants/
A substack that focuses on immigration:
A collection of articles on immigration and crime at the National Institute of Justice:
https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/crimes/research-immigration-and-crime
The Brennan Center on crime trends:
Thanks for commenting, Ellen. I love the idea of connecting industries that benefit from immigration to supporting government institutions. Washington state tries to do this with housing and infrastructure, but not just around immigration. I suspect other states do as well.
The thing is, it doesn’t matter if certain immigrants (illegal immigrants) commit crime at significantly less rates. They still commit crimes. And every time an illegal immigrant commits a crime is a reflection on poor immigration control that could have prevented the crime in the first place. We should be expected to deal with citizens and legal immigrants. There should not be the additional burden of individuals who shouldn’t be here in the first place.